I Am a Writer

There is nothing to writing. All you do is sit down at a typewriter and bleed.”

      - Ernest Hemingway
June 16, 2018

On Stock Market Liquidity When You Need It Most

PanicMode

The websites of two of the country’s biggest robo-advisers - Wealthfront Inc. and Betterment LLC - crashed on Monday as the S&P 500 Index sank. Complaints quickly spread across Reddit and other internet sites from people who had trouble logging onto their accounts.”

Vanguard Group and Charles Schwab Corp. reported outages on Monday…..”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/robo-adviser-websites-crashed-cutting-clients-off-from-accounts

With everyone crowded into the ETF Theater,’ the exit’ problem should be of serious concern. Unfortunately, for most investors, they are likely stuck at the very back of the theater.”

As we have previously discussed, when the robot trading algorithms” begin to reverse, it will not be a slow and methodical process but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation or fundamental measures as the exit will become very narrow.”

At some point, that reversion process will take hold. It is then investor psychology’ will collide with margin debt’ and ETF liquidity. It will be the equivalent of striking a match, lighting a stick of dynamite and throwing it into a tanker full of gasoline.

When the herding’ into ETFs begins to reverse, it will not be a slow and methodical process but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation or fundamental measures.

Importantly, as prices decline it will trigger margin calls which will induce more indiscriminate selling. The forced redemption cycle will cause catastrophic spreads between the current bid and ask pricing for ETFs. As investors are forced to dump positions to meet margin calls, the lack of buyers will form a vacuum causing rapid price declines which leave investors helpless on the sidelines watching years of capital appreciation vanish in moments. Don’t believe me? It happened in 2008 as the Lehman Moment’ left investors helpless watching the crash.”

Over a 3-week span, investors lost 29% of their capital and 44% over the entire 3-month period. This is what happens during a margin liquidation event. It is fast, furious and without remorse.”

Make no mistake we are sitting on a full tank of gas.”

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-warning-shot-for-passive-investing/

February 12, 2018

Slaughterbots: Science Fiction or Apocalyptic?

A Stanford professor created this short film:

And then I recently saw this article:

Kurt Kreiger, the drone’s pilot and engineer, coaxes his machine - named Shep - to the ground. The team huddles around it, pulling pieces apart and inspecting the pellet shooter. When the drone stops working mid-flight, they have to take it apart, fix it, then refill it with pellets and move on to the next patch” of land they aim to vaccinate.”

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/10/569468428/biologists-with-drones-and-peanut-butter-pellets-are-on-a-mission-to-help-ferret

December 15, 2017

How To Get Famous

Nobura Wataya was young and single and smart enough to write a book that nobody could understand. It made him famous.”

-Haruki Murakami, The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle

May 1, 2017

What Should You Do in Case of Nuclear Attack?

Dont Run. Get Inside”

Terminator Nuke

File Under FearMongering:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/don-t-run-get-inside-public-need-know-how-respond-n750466

April 26, 2017

No F8

It is embarrassing that this movie is so successful.

Peaceful Robot

I prefer the old nomicker from T2 as seen in a bathroom in Westlake Village:

Peaceful Robot

April 18, 2017

Peaceful Robots

The robot of the F.E.D.O.R. platform showed skills of firing using both arms. Currently the work on fine motor skills and decision algorithms is underway,” says Deputy Prime Minister.

According to Rogozin, training to shoot is a way of teaching the robot to instantaneously prioritize targets and make decisions.

It is expected that Fedor” will help astronauts work in open space and serve at the station.

Peaceful Robot

Source: https://sputniknews.com/military/201704141052641419-russian-humanoid-robot-uses-both-arms-shoot/

April 14, 2017

On Man-Sized Lobsters Circa 1450

New York fishermen hauled in foot-long lobsters, which they preferred for serving at table” because they were more convenient to eat than the five and six-foot lobsters they also caught.”

    - A Little History of the United States by James West Davidson 
April 13, 2017

On Small Things Turning Into Something Big

Martin Luther King didn’t know he was about to make history when he drove with a friend, Elliot Finley, to the first bus rally in Montgomery. The traffic got worse and worse until the two men ditched their car and started walking. Then it dawned on them: the meeting had caused the traffic jam. You know something, Finley,” King said, this could turn into something big.”

    - A Little History of the United States by James West Davidson 
April 13, 2017

Kurt Cobain Letter to William Burroughs

Cobain Letter to Burroughs

April 13, 2017

On The Path To War

It certainly appears that we are well on the path to war - possibly total war.

This seems to be within the timeline of The Fourth Turning.

April 12, 2017

Eaton Canyon Falls

Eaton Canyon Lower Falls

April 8, 2017

Spring Equinox 2017

Spring Equinox 2017

March 20, 2017

The Blue Drift

Even though he had lived all his life on the world of Synnax, which circled a star at the edges of the Blue Drift, he was not cut off from civilization, you see. At that time, no place in the Galaxy was.”

      - Foundation, Book One, Isaac Asimov
March 1, 2017

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